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MLB Monday | Pitchers to Target | MLB Today | 4.29.2024

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Player Pick #1: Steven Matz o15.5 Pitcher Outs (-115; BetMGM)

Lately, Steven Matz has been holding his own on the mound, showing up with consistent performances that prove he's a reliable starter. Regardless of who he's facing, he's managing to stay in games for about 5 innings per start (15 pitcher outs), which is a good sign early on in the season.

Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers' hitters have been struggling to find their groove, and their struggles even compound when they play at home. The Tigers currently rank bottom 6 in the MLB in OBP (25th - 0.295), BABIP (25th - 0.270), and wOBA (25th - 0.287).

Matchup Analysis:

Matz enters this matchup as one of the best pitchers limiting Barrel % as he commands a 6.0%, which is considered to be elite according to MLB Savants metrics. Additionally, Detroit is a highly conservative team with one 2 batters in their lineup swinging at +50% of the pitches they see. While this could run up Matz pitch count, he's been highly effective finding the strike zone this season with an impressive 54% Zone %.

With this said, Matz has the upper hand vs a struggling Detroit Tigers teams who surprisingly plays worse at home. Look for him to work well into the 5th and maybe even the 6th inning today.

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Player Pick#2 : Jake Irvin o17.5 Pitcher Outs (+100; DraftKings)

When you're looking at Jake Irvin, he doesn't always catch your eye as an impressive pitcher to start the 2024 season. He comes into todays game with a 4.55 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. These are decent numbers, but really nothing outside of below average.

However, looking at his 5 matchups this season he has had to square off vs tough hitting teams in the Phillies, Reds, and Dodgers twice. What's interesting to note here is he averaged 5.2 Innings Pitchers over these games (17 pitcher outs).

Matchup Analysis:

The Miami Marlins are currently one of the worst hitting teams in the MLB, when they are facing right handed pitchers. Up to this point in the season, they currently rank 19th in BA (0.236), 28th in OBP (0.293), and 27th in wOBA (0.291). All signs point in the opposing pitcher's favor who already boasts an impressive FIP (3.20), and this is mainly because he does an excellent job of limiting walks to opposing teams with a 6.2 BB%, meaning he's not running the his pitch count up.

Irvin’s efficiency should look to continue vs these MIA bats who are also an aggressive hitting team with 7 of their possible 13 batters swinging +50% of the time with 4 of them being at +60%. Likely indicating balls in play early on in the count.