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MLB Tuesday | Pitchers to Target | MLB Today | 4.30.2024

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Player Pick #1: Steven Matz (STL) o15.5 Pitcher Outs (-115; BetMGM)

Same writeup as yesterday.

Lately, Steven Matz has been holding his own on the mound, showing up with consistent performances that prove he's a reliable starter. Regardless of who he's facing, he's managing to stay in games for about 5 innings per start (15 pitcher outs), which is a good sign early on in the season.

Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers' hitters have been struggling to find their groove, and their struggles even compound when they play at home. The Tigers currently rank bottom 6 in the MLB in OBP (25th - 0.295), BABIP (25th - 0.270), and wOBA (25th - 0.287).

Matchup Analysis:

Matz enters this matchup as one of the best pitchers limiting Barrel % as he commands a 6.0%, which is considered to be elite according to MLB Savants metrics. Additionally, Detroit is a highly conservative team with one 2 batters in their lineup swinging at +50% of the pitches they see. While this could run up Matz pitch count, he's been highly effective finding the strike zone this season with an impressive 54% Zone %.

With this said, Matz has the upper hand vs a struggling Detroit Tigers teams who surprisingly plays worse at home. Look for him to work well into the 5th and maybe even the 6th inning today.

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Player Pick#2 : Mitch Keller (PIT) o17.5 Pitcher Outs (-119; PrizePicks)

Today's matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Oakland Athletics presents an enticing opportunity, particularly with Pirates' right-handed pitcher, Mitch Keller, taking the mound in Oakland.

Despite Keller's struggles this season, including a 5.14 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, his recent performances indicate potential for a rebound. Averaging 6.0 innings pitched (18 Pitcher Outs) per game over 6 outings, with three of his last four games seeing him exceed 90 pitches. Meaning Keller has the durability to pitch deep into the games, and the Pirates seem to be okay with him working through his struggles early on.

Oakland's woes against right-handed pitching are well-documented, ranking in the bottom four in key offensive categories such as AVG, OBP, OPS, and BABIP. Their struggles are exacerbated when playing at home, where they rank in the bottom three for AVG, OBP, and wOBA.

Conversely, Keller's matchup against this struggling lineup presents a great opportunity for bettors to capitalize on this line.

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Player Pick#3: Jon Gray (TEX) u17.5 Pitcher Outs (-110; BetMGM)

Jon Gray has only hit this Over in 1 game this season, which came against one of the worst hitting teams when they bat at home, and it’s the team I mentioned earlier in the Detroit Tigers. Gray managed 18 pitcher outs on a season high 97 pitches.

I do not expect the same today vs a Washington Nationals team who has proven to be one of the more patient teams vs opposing Right Handed pitchers. The Nats currently rank Top 10 in BB% with a 9.3% Walk rate. 

However, not only do the Nationals work the count, but Jon Gray does himself as well. He currently holds a 1.57 WHIP and a 10.0% BB%, which according to MLB Baseball Savant is a poor rating.

Washington currently ranks Top 10 vs RHP in the following categories: AVG, OBP, and BABIP. 

So with all of this said, it’s tough to imagine Gray working deep into this game vs a patient offense who capitalizes vs RHP, especially since he hasn’t shown the consistent ability to do so this season.